Beverly Hills and Bel Air canyon residents face a chance of rain and possible flooding over Labor Day weekend as Tropical Storm Marie churns in the eastern Pacific.

The National Weather Service (NWS) said the most likely scenario is light to moderate rainfall Saturday through Saturday, Sept. 5–7, with less than an inch in most areas. But outcomes range widely: the NWS said only 5% to 10% of forecast models show 2 or more inches of rain, while 20% to 30% of projections show no rain at all, MyNewsLA reported.

UC climate scientist Daniel Swain told the Los Angeles Times that heavy mountain rainfall poses a serious threat of flash floods, landslides and debris flow. The Los Angeles Times reported the most likely scenario is that Marie veers west, but Swain said even a weakened tropical system could bring "tons of moisture" and dangerous waves to the coast.

The forecast remains uncertain.

"It could be a very wet time period, or we may see no rain at all," KTLA meteorologist Henry DiCarlo said Sept. 1.

As of Tuesday, Sept. 1, Marie was about 1,300 miles south-southeast of San Diego. The National Hurricane Center forecast it to reach hurricane strength by Thursday, Sept. 3, before weakening late Saturday. The NWS said it expected the storm to move northwest toward Southern California through Saturday.

Beyond the holiday weekend, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 50% to 60% chance of above-normal precipitation for Southern California during Sept. 9–15. A strengthening El Niño is driving the outlook. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center places a 90% probability on a "very strong" El Niño during fall and winter 2026–27.

Newsweek reported a 69% chance the event reaches historic strength during October through December, surpassing every El Niño in records dating to 1950.

The Beverly Hills Fire Department (BHFD) has designated the northern section of the city, including canyon areas, a "Very High Hazard Severity Zone," Canyon News reported. The BHFD operates a Coldwater Canyon Fire Station that patrols the area. No flood-specific advisory from BHFD or the Los Angeles Police Department's West Los Angeles Division, which covers Bel Air and Holmby Hills, had been issued as of Wednesday, Sept. 2.

The city advises residents to prepare for seven days to two weeks of self-sufficiency. In a general preparedness message, Beverly Hills Emergency Management Manager Meena Janmohamed said planning for any disaster helps protect families. The city recommends creating an emergency plan, building a supply kit, filling vehicle fuel tanks and parking cars facing out of the driveway, according to Canyon News.

Residents can sign up for emergency notifications at beverlyhills.org/emergencynotification or text "BEVHILLS" and "BEVHILLSPD" to 888777 for Nixle alerts. The NWS said forecast confidence should improve by mid-week as the storm takes shape.